Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones Elected To Baseball Hall Of Fame

The annual MLB Base Ball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) Hall of Fame voting is complete, and outfielders Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones topped the 75% vote threshold necessary for induction. They will join contemporary Jeff Kent, recently tabbed by the Modern Era Committee at this summer’s ceremony in Cooperstown, New York.

It was Beltran’s 4th year of eligibility, and Jones’ 9th. It was one of the lighter ballots credentials-wise in recent memory, and the writers responded by endorsing only 5.77 players per ballot – the lowest average since 5.10 in 2012 – of the maximum 10-player ballot capacity.

Beltran – whose involvement in the 2017 Astros’ cheating scandal seems to have been forgotten by voters (contrary to the way they handled the Bonds/Clemens-led Steroid Era) took a relatively normal route to the Hall, getting 46.5% of the vote in his first year of eligibility three years ago, and steadily increasing from there.

Jones’ road was anything but conventional. He barely exceeded the 5.0% minimum vote threshold to remain on the ballot in his first two years of eligibility in 2018 and 2019, and after a couple of nice bumps upward as the Steroid Era ballot began to clear, first topped the 50% barrier three years ago, putting him in range.

Both players are deserving of the honor. Both were center fielders, Beltran was a better all-around hitter, and they interestingly had almost identical power stats (Beltran out-homered Jones by one, 435-434, and they had exactly identical career slugging percentages at .486). Jones was a superior CF defender, the best I’ve ever seen in the flesh. Beltran’s career was longer, with an actual decline phase, while Jones basically disappeared overnight, so Beltran has the bWAR advantage 70.0 to 62.7.

It’s always fun to recognize the winners, but it’s arguably even more fun to project what will happen in the next few voting cycles. This year’s results gives us some clues…..

UTLEY AND KING FELIX ARE GETTING IN

Annually, I introduce the concept of ballot capacity at this point. This year, the voters put an average of 5.77 players on their ballots. Remove the 1.63 represented by Beltran/Jones, the 0.39 represented by Manny Ramirez, who falls off of the ballot at the end of his 10-year eligibility period, and the 0.07 represented by players who failed to meet the 5% minimum threshold, dropping them off of the ballot. This means that there are only 3.68 players per ballot who are eligible in the next cycle. This leaves an incredible amount of space – more than they’ve had in a long time – for writers to add players next time around.

This means that two guys who surged upward this year are primed for induction. Chase Utley jumped from 39.8% last year to 59.1% this year, and is the most likely player to be elected next year. Felix Hernandez also made a big jump over that span (from 20.6% to 46.1%) and while he’s not a shoo-in for next year, he’ll get in two years from now at the latest. While Felix’ traditional metrics (169-136, 3,42) and bWAR total (49.8) fall short of typical HOF standards, his peak was as good as it gets, and voters seem to be focused on it. I worked for the Mariners for much of that stretch, and witnessed its excellence up close. He is worthy. His bump this cycle is part of another key nugget from this year’s voting……

HERE COME THE STARTING PITCHERS

This is where the big voting jumps were this year, and where they’re likely to be net year. Felix, as indicated above. Andy Pettitte, from 27.9% last year to 48.5% this year. Mark Buehrle (11.4% to 20.0%). Cole Hamels, with a more than respectable 23.8% in his ballot debut. Among hitters on the ballot only Utley (see above), Bobby Abreu (19.5% to 30.8%) and Dustin Pedroia (11.9% to 20.7%) saw comparable raw and percentage jumps.

Voters are finally realizing that modern era starting pitchers can’t be held to the time-honored standards of 300 wins, 3000 strikeouts, etc..The game has changed, so their mindsets must change as well, or else the Hall is going to be arm-deficient. Pettitte has only two years of eligibility remaining, and suddenly has a real shot after first exceeding 20% just last year. He was stuck at 13.5% just two years ago! Buehrle has only four years of eligibility remaining, and will likely run out of time. Hopefully, the candidacies of Buehrle, Johan Santana and Tim Hudson will one day be reconsidered by the Modern Era Committee.

IT’S NOT GONNA HAPPEN

The Steroid Era was still represented on this year’s ballot by Ramirez (38.8% in his last year of eligibility) and Alex Rodriguez (40.0% in his 5th). While this does represent the highest vote total received by A-Rod, I still think it’s unlikely the writers vote him in. I hope I’m wrong, as he is clearly worthy. Omar Vizquel (18.4% in his 9th year) lagged below 20% for the fourth straight year after rising as high as 52.6% in his 3rd. He’s not a Hall of Famer for me.

NEAR-TERM PROGNOSIS

Next year, Utley is a shoo-in. He could be joined by Felix, who is more likely to get in the following year. Buster Posey is the leading newly eligible player next year. I see him as a high-variance candidate who could sneak him on the first ballot given the huge amount of ballot capacity. Joe Mauer did it, so could Buster. Jon Lester is also a new ballot add next year, and could benefit from the writers’ changed attitudes re: modern starting pitchers. He won’t get in right away, but could establish a nice foundation of support that will eventually make him a very viable candidate, a la Pettitte.

Look for Hamels and Pedroia to make sizeable jumps over the next two cycles to put them into consideration for eventual induction. Why the next two cycles? Well, in two years Albert Pujols will be an easy first-time selection (Robinson Cano is likely to get some, but not enough support that same year), but things get crazy the next cycle, when easy calls Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Zack Greinke join the fray, accompanied by viable considerations like Evan Longoria, Adam Wainwright and Nelson Cruz, among others. That will do a number on the amount of excess ballot capacity, to be sure.