HBAR Technical Analysis Jan 21

Volume story – what does market participation tell us about conviction? HBAR’s 24-hour volume is at the 128.89 million dollar level, showing a slight %1.08 increase despite the overall market downtrend. This volume level is %15 below the last 7-day average and signals a lack of strong conviction behind the price movement.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

HBAR’s current volume profile indicates low market participation. The 24-hour volume of 128.89 million dollars is trading below the last 30-day average volume (around 150 million dollars). This situation implies that buyers are approaching cautiously while seller pressure is easing as the downtrend continues. In the volume profile, a Value Area (VA) is forming around $0.11; VAH (Value Area High) at $0.1114, VAL (Value Area Low) at $0.1057. This range represents the area where market participants were most active, with resistance levels concentrated here at a %68 support score, and support at %61 score.

Educational note: Volume profile analysis teaches us that high-volume nodes (POC – Point of Control) indicate prices accepted at an institutional level. In HBAR, POC is near $0.11, consistent with 2 support/3 resistance breakdowns in the last 1D timeframe. When market participation is low and price remains stable, it usually signals an accumulation phase; conversely, high-volume drops confirm distribution.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Accumulation signals are clear: Although price is below EMA20 ($0.12), volume has gradually decreased in recent drops. For example, volume declined %20 in the last 3-day down moves, indicating sellers are starting to exhaust. RSI at 39.80 is approaching oversold, with volume divergence bullish: Price makes lower lows but volume does not, fitting the classic Wyckoff accumulation pattern. The $0.0998 support level (%66 score) was tested with volume, forming a strong volume shelf here, hinting at institutional buying. You can check the details of these levels on the HBAR Spot Analysis page.

Distribution Risks

Distribution warnings are supported by Supertrend bearish ($0.13 resistance) and negative MACD histogram. If volume spikes suddenly and decreases on an upside breakout, it could be a trap (fakeout). In MTF, the 1W timeframe has 4 resistance levels; volume increase above $0.1160 is critical for distribution. Distribution has not yet been confirmed, but BTC downtrend could trigger it.

Price-Volume Harmony

While price rose %1.08, volume stayed below average, showing a lack of confirmation for the up move. For a healthy rally, volume should increase on upticks and decrease on downticks; in HBAR, the opposite is observed – volume dries up on drops. This divergence says price is weak but volume carries a bullish bias. The $0.1114 resistance (%68 score) should be tested with volume; if volume increases %20+ on breakout, bullish confirmation comes. Otherwise, pullback to $0.1057 is likely. Check futures volume data for HBAR Futures Analysis, which shows %10 higher participation than spot.

Educational note: Price-volume divergence is a harbinger of trend change. Volume precedes price – volume leads. In HBAR, low-volume stability signals healthy consolidation.

Big Player Activity

Institutional (whale) activity is concentrated in the $0.10-$0.11 range according to on-chain data. Net inflows from large wallets were observed in the last 24 hours, favoring accumulation. Volume spikes usually match 15-30 minute large trades, with %40 of the $128M volume whale-sourced. However, exact positions cannot be known; only interpreted via patterns. MTF volume levels (13 strong points: 1D 2S/3R, 3D 2S/3R, 1W 2S/4R) show institutions defending resistances. Bull target $0.1475 (%30 score), bear $0.0710 (%22) should be confirmed with volume.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $88,461 level with -%1.85 drop in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. Main supports $88,349 / $86,637; resistances $90,870. HBAR is outperforming BTC (+1.08 vs -1.85), decoupling signal. If BTC drops below $86k, HBAR tests $0.0998; BTC breakout above $90k opens HBAR to $0.13. Caution for alts with high BTC dominance: HBAR volume is %0.15 of BTC vol, correlation %0.72 – medium dependency.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook: Short-term bearish bias but accumulation signals strengthening. $128M volume creating bullish divergence with dry up on downs, wait for $0.1114 breakout. Healthy volume: 150M+ on ups, under 100M on downs. Outlook: %60 accumulation probability, $0.1475 target if BTC stable. Risk: Volume spike could confirm distribution. Be patient, volume story will guide price.