UnitedHealth (UNH) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Q4 Earnings Report

TLDR

• UnitedHealth Group reports Q4 2025 earnings before market open on January 27, with analysts expecting EPS of $2.10 (down 69% year-over-year) and revenue of $113.8 billion (up 13%)
• The stock has dropped 34% over the past year due to higher Medicare Advantage medical costs and a DOJ investigation into billing practices
• A U.S. Senate investigation found UnitedHealth used aggressive tactics to boost Medicare Advantage federal payments through the risk adjustment system
• Wall Street maintains a Strong Buy rating with 16 Buy and 3 Hold ratings, seeing 12-25% upside potential despite current challenges
• Options traders expect a 5.54% move in either direction following the earnings announcement

UnitedHealth Group reports its fourth-quarter 2025 results before the market opens on January 27. The health insurance giant faces investor scrutiny after a tough year.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, UNH

The stock has fallen 34% over the past 12 months. Higher medical costs in the Medicare Advantage business have pressured margins. A DOJ investigation into billing practices has added to investor concerns.

Wall Street expects earnings per share of $2.10 for the quarter. That represents a 69% decline from the same period last year. Revenue is projected to reach $113.8 billion, marking a 13% increase year-over-year.

The company has a solid earnings track record. UnitedHealth beat EPS estimates in seven of the past nine quarters. Last quarter, the company reported revenues of $113.2 billion, meeting analyst expectations with 12.2% year-over-year growth.

Senate Investigation Adds Pressure

Fresh controversy emerged on January 12 when a U.S. Senate investigation revealed concerning findings. The probe examined about 50,000 internal UnitedHealth documents. Investigators found the company used aggressive tactics to increase federal payments for Medicare Advantage plans.

Medicare Advantage insurers receive fixed payments per patient. Higher payments go to members with serious health conditions through the risk adjustment system. The investigation concluded UnitedHealth treated this system as a profit driver rather than a support tool for sicker patients.

Customer count remained flat at 54.08 million in the most recent quarter. Revenue growth has slowed compared to previous periods.

Analyst Outlook Remains Positive

The analyst sees about 25% upside from current levels. He describes the path forward as a “long road back” that could reward patient investors.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright holds a Buy rating but lowered her price target to $409 from $411. The revised target still implies 14% upside from current prices.

Options traders are pricing in a 5.54% move in either direction after earnings. This calculation comes from the at-the-money straddle of options expiring shortly after the announcement.

The consensus rating on TipRanks shows Strong Buy based on 16 Buy and 3 Hold ratings. The average price target of $399.50 suggests 12.14% upside potential. Analysts have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days.

UnitedHealth is the first among its healthcare peers to report this earnings season. The healthcare providers and services segment has seen positive momentum, with share prices up 2.9% on average over the last month. UnitedHealth has outperformed, rising 7.9% during the same period.

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