Breakout Launches On Base, Introducing Weekly Prediction Markets For Crypto Creator Mindshare

Prediction-market platform Breakout, which derives signals from activity on social media platform X, has launched on the Ethereum Layer 2 network Base. With the debut, access has been opened to users located outside the United States. 

The service introduces a market structure centered on weekly shifts in social media attention, enabling participants to take positions on how the leaderboard ranking of prominent crypto-focused creators will change by the time the next weekly snapshot is recorded.

Users engage in week-to-week forecasts of whether a given creator’s prominence will rise or fall. Positions are settled based on transparent leaderboard data that tracks changes in attention across social media, with outcomes determined strictly by week-over-week movement. 

The concept builds on existing behavior within crypto-focused social circles, where narratives are informally traded and posts sometimes frame attention as an investable signal. Breakout formalizes that dynamic into a structured, rules-based market. Because online attention can shift fast, the product emphasizes momentum and relative change, asking not who is most influential in absolute terms, but who is gaining or losing mindshare from one week to the next.

The underlying format replaces the idea of “owning” a person’s profile with a mechanism for measuring attention on a recurring basis. Each week, the platform publishes a list of the top twenty cryptocurrency X accounts ranked by mindshare and poses a standardized question for each entry: whether that account’s mindshare will increase in the following week. Every round resolves against a public scoreboard that records only the numerical change in attention compared with the previous snapshot.

The result is a cycle of clearly defined outcomes, with new rounds beginning every week, opportunities to take bullish and bearish positions, and a structure that allows emerging accounts to climb the rankings quickly. 

Although the platform operates on Ethereum’s Base network, it also supports Solana connectivity. Users can link a Solana wallet, after which the system automatically bridges assets to the appropriate environment without requiring manual intervention. Custody remains with the user at all times, as wallet management is handled through Privy and the platform itself does not take control of funds. Transaction costs are abstracted away as well, with Breakout covering gas fees to keep trading friction to a minimum.

How Breakout Works: Automated Weekly Markets for Trading Creator Rank Movements

In Breakout’s markets, participation centers on forecasting how a creator’s position on the leaderboard will change from one weekly snapshot to the next. Each contract resolves purely on rank movement over a seven-day period, meaning the only question being traded is whether a creator’s position will improve, remain unchanged, or decline during that week.

The data used to settle these markets is generated through an automated process. At the beginning and end of every weekly window, the platform records a snapshot of its Creator Leaderboard. Market outcomes are then determined by comparing the two snapshots and calculating the difference in rank for each listed account. This method removes any element of discretion or human judgment, relying instead on a fixed, rules-based comparison of leaderboard positions.

Market resolution and renewal follow a consistent schedule. Every Monday at 12:00 PM UTC, a new snapshot is taken, existing markets are settled, and the next weekly round becomes active. This cadence establishes a predictable rhythm for trading and outcome determination.

Trading itself is structured around two directional positions tied to weekly performance. Participants can purchase shares representing a view that a creator’s rank will either hold steady or move higher over the week, or alternatively that the rank will decline. These positions are commonly described as long, covering flat or upward movement, and short, covering downward movement. If the selected outcome aligns with the actual change recorded in the weekly snapshot, the position settles in favor of the holder.

Shares are not locked until market close and can be sold at any point before resolution. Pricing fluctuates continuously as other participants buy and sell, reflecting shifting sentiment around each creator’s expected performance. The cost of a share is therefore a real-time expression of the crowd’s collective belief about the likelihood of a particular outcome, with more widely favored scenarios commanding higher prices.

The platform charges a transaction fee of one percent per trade, not including any potential slippage that may occur during execution. Network transaction costs are absorbed by the platform, so users do not pay separate gas fees. Beyond this trading fee, no additional charges apply.

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