Volatility spreads in the crypto and other risk assets market as investors get on the FOMO train to push selling pressure to new heights. Mike McGlone dropped his 2026 base case, where volatility is set to “trickle up” after years of excess across markets.
The global digital assets market cap dropped by another 3% over the last 24 hours to reach $2.61 trillion. Its 24-hour trading volume dipped marginally to hover around $186 billion. The Fear and Greed index is flashing “Extreme Fear” as investors decided to pull out. Bitcoin price dipped below $75,000 before recording a minor recovery.
Bitcoin to face $50K test?
The senior Bloomberg analyst mentioned that metals peaked in 2025 alongside crypto, and this includes gold. He described Bitcoin’s first major support near $50,000 with downside risk extending toward $10,000. BTC price has dropped by 12% in the last 7 days. Bitcoin is trading at an average price of $77,478 at press time.
McGlone said Ether faces a similar setup. He flagged $2,000 as initial support and described it as a potential speed bump rather than a floor. His longer-term target sits closer to $1,000 as stock market volatility resurfaces. ETH price dipped by more than 21% in the last 7 days. It is trading at an average price of $2,276 at the press time.
He highlighted that the S&P 500 must remain above 7,000 to prevent key assets from marking cycle highs. McGlone listed thresholds near $6 per pound for copper and cited $100 per ounce for silver. He pointed to $65 per barrel for WTI crude oil.
He also highlighted $5 per MBTU for natural gas and included a 5% yield on the US 30-year Treasury. He added that the $100,000 Bitcoin would also mark a ceiling under that scenario.
McGlone said equity volatility is too low. He noted that the S&P 500 180-day volatility sits near 11%. He expects it to rise toward its 10-year average near 17%. He also said Treasury bond futures are poised for a breakout. He said their 100-week Bollinger bands are the narrowest since 2008.
He described the setup as favorable for traders. He said 2026 could resemble 2008 or the 2000 to 2001 period. He framed the move as part of a broader deflationary shift.
McGlone rates deflation risk a 10
McGlone said deflation has followed inflation in every major cycle. He said China and Japan have lived with post-inflation deflation for decades. He expects that dynamic to spread globally. He said some reversion in US equities is inevitable. He rated deflation risk as a 10 on a scale of one to ten. He said the question is timing. He said 2026 is the year.
Market action over the weekend reinforced the message. Bitcoin slipped below $76,000 in thin trading. That marked a drop of about 40% from its 2025 peak. Prices revisited levels last seen after the “Liberation Day” tariff fallout.
The selloff has looked different from prior drawdowns. There has been no panic. There were no cascading liquidations. There was no clear systemic shock; instead, demand faded, and liquidity thinned, so buyers decided to stay on the sidelines.
Bitcoin has failed to respond to traditional catalysts. It has not rallied on geopolitical stress. It has not benefited from dollar weakness. It has not moved with equity rebounds. Even during sharp swings in gold and silver, crypto saw little rotation.
Precious metals have also reversed. Gold and silver fell alongside stocks after leading markets earlier this year. Assets that performed best in January came under heavy pressure after a sharp market reversal late last week.
Gold dropped as much as 8.1% on Monday. Prices briefly fell below $4,500 an ounce. The metal had traded near $5,600 in January. Silver fell as much as 15%. That followed a record 26% slump on Friday.
Asian equities recorded their worst two-day decline since early April. Futures pointed to further losses in Europe and the United States. Technology stocks led the slide. Valuation concerns and heavy spending on artificial intelligence weighed on sentiment. MSCI’s Asian tech index posted its steepest drop since November.
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Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/volatility-is-back-crypto-not-ready/
