New York AG warns about prediction market risks ahead of Super Bowl

Days before Super Bowl 60, New York Attorney General Letitia James has a message for consumers: Be careful about placing trades on prediction markets.

“New Yorkers need to know the significant risks with unregulated prediction markets,” James said in a statement Monday. “It’s crystal clear: so-called prediction markets do not have the same consumer protections as regulated platforms. I urge all New Yorkers to be cautious of these platforms to protect their money.”

Prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are expected to generate billions of dollars in trading volume around the Super Bowl.

Consumers can make trades on game events — similar to online sportsbooks like DraftKings or FanDuel — as well as on predetermined outcomes, such as which companies will advertise during the Super Bowl, an issue CNBC Sport reported on last week.

James said the platforms’ products are bets “masquerading” as event contracts, which are generally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Kalshi, which initially declined to comment, said in statement later Monday, “We agree that consumers should steer clear of unregulated prediction markets. Our members’ platforms are all regulated by the CFTC, similar to how the SEC regulates the stock market. Regulation comes with many of the guardrails the AG outlines – a ban on insider trading, self-exclusion, and responsible trading guidelines. We all want the same thing: safe, fair, and legitimate products.”

Representatives for Polymarket didn’t immediately respond to request for comment.

James warned that concerns around the nascent prediction market industry include “upholding prohibitions against insider betting and requiring regulatory review to ensure the financial stability and integrity of gambling operators.”

“Prediction markets may appear as modern, high-tech platforms for speculation or ‘forecasting,’ but in practice, many operate as unregulated gambling without the basic protections New York consumers both deserve and expect from properly licensed operators,” James said in the statement.

Prediction market contracts trade somewhat similarly to all-or-nothing options, with contracts priced between $0 and $1. The contracts trade up or down depending on the action.

In addition to contracts on Super Bowl commercials, both Polymarket and Kalshi are offering other trades related to the game, including on matters like “What songs will be played at the halftime show?,” “Who will attend the big game?,” and more traditional sportsbook “bets” such as “Seattle vs. New England: Most Rushing Yards,” as CNBC reported last week.

There are laws that prohibit insider trading on prediction markets, just as on traditional financial markets. But industry experts say they’re skeptical that the CFTC, recently gutted as part of widespread government cuts, has the will or the means to police those problems. 

Last week, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said he had directed agency staff to withdraw a proposed rule that would have banned prediction trades on sports and politics. He said new rules would be coming.

Disclosure: CNBC has a commercial relationship with Kalshi.