JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Looks More Attractive Than Gold After Historic Divergence

JPMorgan Chase strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Bitcoin has become “even more attractive” than gold for long-term investors, following one of the widest relative performance gaps between the two assets in recent history.

JPMorgan highlighted that gold has outperformed Bitcoin by roughly 70% since October 2025.

Rather than viewing this divergence as a structural shift, the bank argues it has created a valuation imbalance that now favors Bitcoin on a risk-adjusted basis.

Volatility Compression Changes the Relative Value Case

A key driver behind JPMorgan’s view is the collapse in Bitcoin’s volatility relative to gold. The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen to a record low of 1.5, according to the report.

On a volatility-adjusted basis, the strategists argue this makes Bitcoin meaningfully undervalued compared to gold, especially given its historical tendency to trade at much higher relative volatility. JPMorgan sees this compression as evidence that Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class rather than losing relevance.

Long-Term Upside Framed Through Gold’s Market Size

The report also revisits a long-standing comparison between Bitcoin and gold as alternative stores of value. JPMorgan estimates that if Bitcoin were to match the private sector’s total investment in gold, approximately $8 trillion, its implied price would reach about $266,000 per coin.

The bank stressed this is not a price forecast, but a theoretical framework to illustrate the scale of potential upside if Bitcoin continues to absorb capital traditionally allocated to gold.

Mining Economics Point to a Structural Floor

JPMorgan noted that Bitcoin recently traded near $70,000, well below its estimated production cost of roughly $87,000. Historically, prices falling beneath production costs have coincided with late-stage corrections, as inefficient miners are forced out and supply pressure diminishes.

The report also highlighted that recent position liquidations have been more moderate than during prior drawdowns, suggesting excess leverage has already been reduced across the market.

Gold Still Favored Short Term, Bitcoin Longer Term

Despite the constructive long-term outlook for Bitcoin, JPMorgan simultaneously raised its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $6,300 per ounce, citing sustained central bank demand and geopolitical hedging.

The bank views the current environment as a sentiment-driven split: strong enthusiasm for gold alongside deep aversion toward Bitcoin. In JPMorgan’s view, that imbalance, rather than fundamentals, may be what ultimately sets up Bitcoin’s longer-term opportunity.

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