Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: BTC Enters Corrective Phase Below $77K With $70K as Structural Pivot

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a pivotal moment as its price trades near $72,000, leaving investors weighing whether it can reclaim $100K highs or risk a further decline toward $60K.

On the daily chart, BTC has now closed below $77,000 for three consecutive sessions, with declining volume and short upper wicks signaling a corrective phase rather than an impulsive sell-off. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggest neutral to slightly bearish conditions, while intraday candles indicate intermittent buying pressure around $72K.

Key Support Levels and Technical Outlook

Bitcoin currently tests multiple technical structures simultaneously. Horizontal support zones appear at $60,176 and $47,824, with the $77,086 level recently breached, confirming that previous bullish highs are under pressure. Price has shown repeated reaction near $72K–$74K, with buyers stepping in during intraday dips, creating long lower wicks and moderate volume spikes that highlight short-term accumulation.

Bitcoin trades near $72K, with key support at $60,176 and $47,824, as traders anticipate potential dips amid ongoing post-halving volatility. Source: Ali Martinez via X

The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $70,000 aligns closely with these horizontal supports. This convergence is significant: if BTC closes below $70K daily, Elliott Wave bullish scenarios could be invalidated, as structural demand fails to hold. Conversely, a reclaim above $74K with volume expansion would strengthen the case for a rebound toward $100K.

Bitcoin held above $70K support, though broader volatility and external factors continue to influence price swings. Source: The Long Investor via X

By reconciling frameworks, Elliott Wave patterns suggest potential Wave 5 upside, while horizontal support zones provide pragmatic price floors. Currently, both converge around the $70K–$72K area, emphasizing its critical role in near-term price behavior.

Corporate Influence and Leverage Risks

Institutional dynamics continue to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds over 671,000 BTC at an average cost of ~$74,972 per coin. This accumulation, funded through convertible debt and equity offerings, introduces leverage-sensitive dynamics.

Bitcoin trades below $100K, with Strategy’s holdings adding leverage risk and key support at $62K–$82K for potential accumulation. Source: TopgOptions on TradingView

While forced liquidation remains unlikely under normal market conditions, a sustained break below the $74K average cost could trigger sentiment-driven selling. Analysts note that such a move could compress MSTR’s premium to NAV, potentially nudging retail and institutional participants to reduce exposure.

Historical reaction shows that BTC tends to consolidate near prior cycle highs, with the $62K–$72K zone functioning as a major demand area. Intraday price behavior demonstrates repeated support near these levels, suggesting long-term investors may view this range as a strategic entry point.

Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Context: Digital Gold in an Unstable Environment

Bitcoin’s short-term moves cannot be divorced from broader macroeconomic factors. With inflation pressures, rising interest rates, and volatility in global equities, BTC increasingly functions as a hedge against monetary debasement. Institutional flows, ETF approvals, and corporate accumulation reinforce its role as a non-sovereign store of value.

Volume patterns confirm that during weekly demand zones, BTC experiences spikes in buying activity, reflecting both retail and institutional recognition of its digital-gold narrative. This suggests macroeconomic uncertainty continues to amplify Bitcoin’s strategic appeal beyond mere speculative trading.

Potential Scenarios and Price Targets

Conditional analysis suggests a higher probability of short-term downside continuation unless BTC reclaims $77K on strong volume.

Bullish scenario (conditional):

• Daily closes above $74K, with volume above 50-day average.
• Targets: $100,800 and $119,500.
• Confirmation: sustained higher highs, supportive intraday candle wicks, and improved momentum indicators.

Bearish scenario (conditional):

• Daily closes below $70K invalidate key Elliott Wave structures.
• Price may retest the $62K–$72K support zone, with $60,176 as a critical floor.
• Confirmation: declining volume on rallies, lower lows on intraday charts.

Bitcoin bounced from the weekly demand zone at $72K–$74K, with targets set at $100,800 and $119,500. Source: VIPROSE on TradingView

Traders and long-term investors should differentiate strategies: short-term traders may focus on daily chart momentum and support reactions, while long-term holders should monitor institutional accumulation and macroeconomic drivers to inform buy or hold decisions.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin currently navigates a delicate balance between short-term corrective pressure and longer-term accumulation potential. While a rebound toward $100K remains plausible under favorable volume and institutional support, the likelihood of a further slide toward $60K is non-negligible unless BTC reclaims key levels above $74K–$77K.

Bitcoin was trading at around $71,096.972, down 7.09% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin

By combining chart-based observation, technical frameworks, corporate leverage analysis, and macroeconomic context, investors gain a more nuanced, actionable perspective on BTC price trends in 2026.