BAT Technical Analysis Feb 6

[ENGLISH: In BAT’s market structure, the downtrend clearly maintains its dominance with the LH/LL pattern; if $0.0969 support breaks, bearish continuation, could a change signal come with BOS above $0.1203?]

Market Structure Overview

BAT’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The price has recently formed lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern, reinforcing the bearish structure. Current price at $0.11 level and 24-hour change -9.35% under strong pressure. While squeezed in $0.10-$0.12 range, Supertrend gives bearish signal and EMA20 ($0.15) forms resistance above. In multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, total 9 strong levels detected in 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1D has 1 support/2 resistance, 3D has 1 support/3 resistance, 1W has 5 support/3 resistance balance. This shows the overall structure is bearish inclined, but oversold RSI (23.58) carries short-term reaction risk. Market structure analysis requires monitoring LL break for trend continuation or higher high (HH) formation for reversal. MACD’s negative histogram also confirms downward momentum. Overall, BAT’s structure is downtrend-focused and positions should not be taken without any bullish BOS (Break of Structure).

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) pattern is required, but these signals are weak in BAT. Recently, price was rejected from $0.1349 swing high and declined to $0.1203; this LH formation blocks bullish momentum. RSI at 23.58 is in oversold zone, which could trigger a short-term HL bounce, but HH should not be expected without breaking EMA20 ($0.15). In MTF, 1W timeframe has 5 support levels, which could be potential HL points, but limited due to BTC correlation. Bullish continuation target $0.1996 has low score (26/100), meaning risky without structural confirmation.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend is strong with LH/LL: Last swing low $0.0969 (77/100 score), its break would confirm LL. $0.1203 LH broken and price down to $0.11, MACD bearish. 24h -9.35% drop and BTC downtrend pulling lows lower. Bearish breakdown target $0.0119 (22/100), but nearby support $0.0969 is critical. LL continuation brings new lower lows and delays trend reversal.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS levels determine trend change. For bullish BOS, break above $0.1203 (70/100) swing high and $0.1349 (63/100) is required; this invalidates the last LH and starts HL search. If price also passes $0.15 EMA20, CHoCH (Change of Character) signal strengthens. Bearish BOS gives LL confirmation with $0.0969 support break, targeting below $0.10 range. In MTF, 3D/1W resistances (total 5R) make upward BOS difficult. These levels are critical for BAT Spot Analysis and BAT Futures Analysis; in futures, BOS can be traded with leverage, but stop-loss should be set according to swing levels.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $0.1203 (70/100, nearby LH), $0.1349 (63/100, main resistance). These points are rejection zones in bearish structure; price turned from here to make LL. Break would be bullish BOS, invalidation would continue LH. Resistance density in 1D/3D increases short opportunities.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $0.0969 (77/100, main support), $0.10 range lower boundary. These levels are HL defense points; hold brings short-covering, break leads to freefall. 1W has 5 supports, suggesting long-term base, but fragile due to BTC influence.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $65,650 with -8.30% drop in downtrend; Supertrend bearish, supports $62,910/$60,000. Altcoins like BAT are highly correlated to BTC, if BTC makes LL, BAT tests $0.0969. If BTC breaks $65,881 resistance, BAT gets rebound, dominance drop relieves alts. BTC key levels: Resistances $71,041/$74,685 should be monitored, breakdown to $45,967 accelerates BAT bearish targets.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL dominant, BOS down at $0.0969, up at $0.1203/$0.1349. No CHoCH, trend continuation likely. Oversold RSI bounce risk exists, but staying below EMA20 sustains LH/LL. MTF resistance superiority gives short bias. Trade strategy: Short on bearish BOS, long on bullish; always use swing stop-loss. Market structure is dynamic, regular checks required.