Bitcoin’s latest pullback is pushing more holders into paper losses, while a separate cost basis gauge highlights a possible downside level near the mid $30,000s if past cycle patterns repeat. Together, the charts frame the selloff as a stress test for conviction, with unrealized losses rising and long term holder levels back in focus.
Bitcoin slides as relative unrealized loss rises to multi-year highs
Bitcoin’s relative unrealized loss climbed to one of its highest readings of the past cycle as price pulled back from recent highs, according to Glassnode data. The metric, which tracks the share of coins held at a paper loss, rose sharply during the latest selloff, signaling that a larger portion of supply moved underwater as spot price slipped from the upper range into lower levels.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s dollar price remained well below recent peaks, and therefore the move pushed more short-term holders into loss during the decline.
BTC Relative Unrealized Loss. Source: Glassnode
The chart shows earlier spikes in relative unrealized loss lining up with broad drawdowns in 2018 to 2019 and again during the 2022 bear phase. In each case, the orange loss bands expanded as price fell and then narrowed as price stabilized and recovered.
This time, the loss share expanded again as Bitcoin rolled over from late-cycle highs, and meanwhile price stayed under prior resistance. As a result, the latest reading places current conditions closer to historical stress zones than to periods of broad profit.
Even so, the metric has not stayed elevated for long stretches outside major downturns. After past spikes, loss pressure faded as selling slowed and price found support. Now, the data show loss rising during the pullback while price trends lower than the recent range.
Therefore, the current structure reflects renewed stress among holders following the decline, with the indicator expanding during weakness and compressing during rebounds, a pattern that has tracked cycle drawdowns across prior periods.
Analyst ties bitcoin downside target to long term holder realized price
Bitcoin could bottom near $34,500 if it drops about 15% below its long term holder realized price, according to crypto trader TedPillows, who shared a Bitcoin Magazine Pro chart tracking the metric against BTC’s spot price. TedPillows said each cycle bottom has formed roughly 15% under the long term holder realized price, a cost basis style measure that reflects the average price paid by coins held for longer periods.
Bitcoin Long Term Holder Realized Price. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro
In the latest reading shown on the chart, the long term holder realized price sits around $40,300, while Bitcoin’s spot price remains above that level after a pullback from recent highs. Based on the 15% gap he cited, TedPillows calculated a potential bottom near $34,500 if the historical pattern repeats.
However, TedPillows added that he does not think Bitcoin will fall that far, even while pointing to the prior-cycle relationship highlighted by the boxed areas on the chart, where spot price briefly undercut the long term holder realized price before turning higher.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/14388/bitcoin-price-prediction-is-a-15-drop-coming-long-term-holder-metric-says-watch-34-5-k
