treasury firms face make-or-break test as $1.4b losses mount

Solana price prediction steep slide is hammering ETFs and corporate treasuries, with $1.4b in paper losses exposing how fragile institutional crypto risk-taking has become.

Solana (SOL) price prediction: latest selloff has turned into a stress test for both institutional vehicles and the handful of public companies that bet their treasuries on the network’s native token.

Solana price prediction seen as tailwinds for new hypothesis

Solana, the seventh‑largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, plunged to a two‑year low near $67 early last week before clawing back to the $84–$87 band, leaving the asset down roughly 38% over the past 30 days and more than 70% below its January 2025 peak around $295. The move marks one of the steepest drawdowns among major layer‑1s in the current downturn, even as the network still processes around 160 million daily transactions and handled about $117 billion in DEX volume in January, briefly overtaking Ethereum on that metric.

Solana’s sharp reset has carved out the $84–$87 band as the first meaningful pivot zone, and if the network can sustain roughly 160 million daily transactions and DEX volumes anywhere near January’s $117 billion run‑rate, the current drawdown increasingly looks like late‑stage capitulation rather than the start of a structural collapse, opening room for a medium‑term recovery path back toward the $120–$150 area, while a clean break below $80 would invalidate this hypothesis and re‑open the door to a full retest of the two‑year low around $67 or even the $50–$60 range.

Institutional outflows and funds

Flows data underscore how quickly professional money is backing away. Solana‑focused exchange‑traded funds saw $11.9 million in net outflows on February 6, the second‑largest single‑day exit on record for the sector, cutting total assets under management from peaks above $1.1 billion to roughly $733 million. Grayscale’s SOL ETF shed $1.296 million on February 9, partly offset by $1.281 million of inflows into Bitwise’s BSOL product, leaving a marginal net outflow of $15,000 for the day but weekly redemptions still near $8.92 million.

These moves come against a wider backdrop of risk reduction across digital‑asset funds, with crypto investment products recently recording weekly outflows above $1.7 billion as macro uncertainty and tighter policy expectations weigh on sentiment.

Corporate treasuries in the red

The damage is most acute for listed firms that treated SOL as a balance‑sheet asset. The four largest disclosed corporate holders—Forward Industries, Sharps Technology, DeFi Development Corp, and Upexi—now sit on an estimated $1.4 billion in combined unrealized losses, according to recent treasury disclosures. Forward alone holds about 6.9 million SOL at an average entry near $232, leaving what amounts to “unrealized losses approaching $1 billion” with the token trading in the mid‑$80s, while its own equity has slid from almost $40 last year to roughly $5. Sharps Technology and DeFi Development Corp, holding roughly 1.9 million and 2.2 million SOL respectively, have watched their share prices fall between 59% and 80% over the past six months.

Technicals, self‑custody and broader market

Technicians warn that price structure is still fragile. Market analyst Alex Clay has flagged a completed head‑and‑shoulders breakdown targeting the $42 zone, with other chart watchers eyeing interim supports in the $50–$75 region and some calling for potential spikes down toward $30 if selling pressure accelerates. On‑chain, more than 1.07 million SOL have left centralized exchanges in just 72 hours, a shift analyst Ali Martinez interprets as fear‑driven self‑custody rather than aggressive dip‑buying, with the $100 mark now framed as the “critical psychological level” bulls must reclaim to repair sentiment.

Investors tracking the fallout across the Solana ecosystem and wider market can follow ongoing developments in institutional adoption, large‑cap balance‑sheet losses, and capitulation dynamics through recent coverage of Solana’s institutional deals, the mounting mark‑to‑market hit at major crypto‑exposed corporates, and the latest leg lower in altcoins.