Adyen (ADYEN) Stock Falls 20% on Weak 2026 Revenue Guidance

TLDR

• Adyen stock crashed 17-20% Thursday after missing Q4 revenue estimates and issuing disappointing 2026 guidance below analyst expectations.
• Q4 net revenue grew 19% to €672 million but missed consensus by 2%, while processed volumes of €398 billion fell 2% short of forecasts.
• The company guided 2026 revenue growth at 20-22%, down from previous “low-to mid-20s” target and roughly 2% below Wall Street estimates.
• Currency headwinds from a weaker US dollar hurt results, with full-year net revenue rising 21% to €2.36 billion on constant currency basis.
• EBITDA margins expanded to 55% in H2 2025, but 2026 margin guidance of “in-line with 2025” disappointed investors expecting further expansion.

Adyen stock took a beating Thursday morning, dropping as much as 20% in Amsterdam trading after the Dutch payments processor delivered fourth-quarter results that fell short of expectations. The selloff intensified when management issued conservative 2026 guidance that caught investors off guard.

The company reported Q4 net revenue of €672 million, representing 19% growth on a constant currency basis. That figure came in 2% below what analysts were expecting. Total processed volume for the quarter reached €398 billion, also missing estimates by 2%.

Adyen N.V., 0YP5.L

For the full second half of 2025, Adyen posted net revenue of €1.27 billion, up 21% on a constant currency basis. Processed volumes hit €745 billion during that period, growing 19% year-over-year. Full-year revenue climbed to €2.36 billion.

Currency headwinds played a role in the miss. A weaker US dollar ate into reported numbers, with Jefferies analysts noting that foreign exchange movements dampened what were otherwise solid underlying results.

The real disappointment came in the forward guidance. Management projected 2026 revenue growth of 20-22% on a constant currency basis. That’s below the company’s previous target of “low-to mid-20s” growth and sits roughly 2% under consensus estimates at the midpoint.

Profitability Metrics Fail to Impress

On the profitability front, Adyen delivered some bright spots in the second half of 2025. EBITDA jumped 23% year-over-year to €702.1 million, slightly beating expectations. Margins expanded to around 55%, up from previous levels.

But the 2026 outlook on margins failed to excite. The company said it expects EBITDA margins to remain “in-line with 2025” levels. That translates to roughly €1.47-1.51 billion in EBITDA, which Jefferies calculated as about 5% below what the Street was modeling.

Headcount Growth and Long-Term Targets

Adyen continued investing in its workforce during the period. The company’s headcount grew 10% year-over-year to 4,771 employees at year-end. That expansion reflects ongoing efforts to scale operations and capture market share in competitive payments markets.

Looking further ahead, management reiterated its 2028 target of EBITDA margins exceeding 55%. That compares to roughly 53% achieved last year. The company maintained its long-term growth ambitions despite the near-term guidance reset.

Competition in the payments space has intensified. Adyen faces pressure from established players and emerging fintech companies fighting for merchant relationships. Some analysts believe management may have baked conservatism into the 2026 forecast.

US tariff policies have created additional challenges for Asian e-commerce clients, which represent a meaningful portion of Adyen’s customer base. Those headwinds factored into the cautious outlook management provided for the year ahead.

The stock traded at €920.20 per share by mid-morning in Amsterdam, down 20.41% from Wednesday’s close. The sharp decline erased billions in market value as investors recalibrated expectations for growth and profitability in 2026.

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