OSL Trading Time: BTC has fallen back more than 11% from its historical high, and analysts believe it is a short-term fluctuation

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

El Salvador continues to accelerate its Bitcoin purchases through an ambitious plan despite its deal with the International Monetary Fund. The news comes alongside a proposed Bitcoin reserve bill that, if enacted, could end the cryptocurrency market’s 4-year boom-bust cycle.

Currently, the average profit of Bitcoin investors has reached $67,000, and as the cryptocurrency market expands, experts predict that the crypto index will become a market barometer like the S&P 500. However, major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have suffered a sharp correction after the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut.

In this regard, veteran trader Peter Brandt is bullish on the Bitcoin-gold ratio, believing that the current downturn may be temporary, but analyst Justin Bennett warns that if the bulls lose momentum, there may be further declines.

On the policy level, Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to authorize the Federal Reserve to buy and hold Bitcoin, Craig Wright, the self-proclaimed Bitcoin creator, has been sentenced, President Trump has pledged to establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, and the German Free Democratic Party is also pushing for the integration of digital assets into the country's existing financial framework. Despite the current downward trend in the market, the industry remains optimistic about the maturity of the crypto market in the next few years as institutional investors purchase the equivalent of 8 years of Bitcoin issuance in 2024.

2. Key data (as of 09:25 HKT, December 20)

• S&P 500: 5,867.08 (+23.00% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 20,109.06 points (+29.05% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.559% (+67.81 basis points this year)

• US dollar index: 106.593 (+7.05% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $96,983.10 (+129.46% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $97.39 billion

• Ethereum: $3,415.35 (+49.70% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $59.25 billion

3. ETF flows (December 19 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$647.89 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$63.16 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

Retail sales month-on-month (09:30 p.m., December 17)

• Actual: 0.7% / Previous: 0.5% / Expected: 0.5%

Federal Reserve interest rate decision (03:00 am, December 19)

• Actual: 4.5% / Previous: 4.75% / Expected: 4.5%

Final GDP quarter-on-quarter value (09:30 p.m., December 19)

• Actual: 3.1% / Previous: 3.00% / Expected: 2.80%

Core PCE price index month-on-month (09:30 p.m., December 20)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.3% / Expected: 0.2%

Personal income month-on-month (09:30 p.m., December 20)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.6% / Expected: 0.4%

Personal expenditure month-on-month (09:30 p.m., December 20)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.4% / Expected: 0.5%

5. Hot News

• Metaplanet issues 5 billion yen in ordinary bonds to accelerate Bitcoin purchases

• Mt.Gox address just transferred nearly 720 BTC, worth about $69.87 million

• Data: The number of active cryptocurrency users in Hong Kong is currently estimated to be only about 100,000

• El Salvador wallet address holds 11 bitcoins worth $1.07 million

• US SEC approves Hashdex to launch Nasdaq Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto index ETF

• El Salvador officials: Will accelerate the purchase of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, the official Bitcoin wallet Chivo will be sold or discontinued

• The UFD that a trader bought for $700 is now worth more than $12.56 million

• US listed company reAlpha plans to use up to 25% of its surplus cash to buy cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin mining company MARA has increased its holdings of 15,574 bitcoins in the past two months, worth about $1.53 billion

• Bitcoin mining company Hut 8 increased its holdings by 990 BTC, and its total reserve value increased to US$1 billion

• Ceffu deposits 2,025 BTC, about $207 million, to Binance

• Fuel is now open for airdrops and token staking

• Binance Alpha has announced the third batch of projects

• Bitwise CIO: BTC's pullback is only a short-term fluctuation and does not change the long-term bullish trend of the crypto market

• Binance User Survey: 23.89% of respondents believe AI tokens will dominate market growth in 2025, 16.1% hold Meme coins

• Kelp DAO releases KERNEL token economics, 55% allocated to community rewards and airdrops

• El Salvador reaches $1.4 billion loan agreement with IMF, Bitcoin payments will become voluntary

• Powell: We are not allowed to own Bitcoin and we do not want to change the law

• Trump family crypto project WLFI announces long-term partnership with Ethena Labs

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