Bitwise To Launch Prediction‑Market ETFs Tracking US Election Outcomes

According to crypto reporter Eleanor Terrett, asset manager Bitwise has submitted a filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seeking approval for a set of funds linked to event contracts tied to the outcomes of US elections. The firm’s prospectus introduces a new series of ETFs under the PredictionShares label, outlining six products designed to function in a manner similar to prediction markets and intended for listing on NYSE Arca.

The structure divides each political contest into separate funds. Two vehicles correspond to the 2028 presidential race, paying out depending on whether the Democratic or Republican candidate wins. Another pair is tied to which party secures control of the Senate in 2026, while the final two mirror the outcome of the House elections. The prospectus states that each fund seeks capital appreciation if the specified party prevails in its respective race, while also noting that the fund would lose nearly all of its value if the anticipated result does not occur.

Each ETF allocates at least eighty percent of its assets to binary event contracts—derivatives commonly used in political prediction markets and traded on exchanges regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These instruments settle at one dollar when the referenced event happens and at zero when it does not, creating a straightforward payoff structure that mirrors the binary nature of electoral outcomes.

In practice, Bitwise is segmenting each race into distinct investment choices, allowing market participants to select the scenario they believe is most likely. The daily price of each fund reflects the market’s evolving assessment of that probability, moving between zero and one as polling data, news cycles, and broader sentiment shift. This approach effectively brings the mechanics of prediction markets into a regulated ETF format, raising broader questions about the growing financialization of political events and the implications of treating electoral outcomes as tradable assets.

Political‑Outcome ETFs Gain Momentum As Issuers Push Prediction‑Market Concepts Into Mainstream Finance

James Seyffart’s observation that “the financialization and ETF‑ization of everything continues” captures a broader shift in how markets are beginning to absorb event‑driven speculation into regulated investment products. His remark comes as another example of this trend emerges, with filings that mirror the structure of prediction markets now appearing with increasing frequency. Seyffart noted that this is not the first attempt to introduce such instruments and is unlikely to be the last, pointing to a recent Roundhill submission that follows the same model.

Roundhill’s prospectus outlines a similar suite of exchange‑listed funds built around political outcomes, offering six products tied to the results of presidential, Senate, and House elections. The parallel between the two filings suggests that political‑event ETFs are moving from isolated experiments to a potential new category within the broader market. Their appearance reflects a growing willingness among issuers to package binary, outcome‑based contracts into familiar investment vehicles, effectively bringing prediction‑market logic into mainstream finance.

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