OP Weekly Analysis Feb 28

OP closed the week with a 12.62% drop, continuing the main downtrend, approaching the critical $0.1100 support level and entering the oversold zone with RSI 21. Although the market structure indicates a distribution phase, if this level holds, short-term accumulation signals may form; however, Bitcoin’s bearish momentum necessitates a cautious approach for altcoins.

OP in the Weekly Market Summary

OP token traded in the $0.11 – $0.13 range last week, experiencing a sharp 12.62% drop and stabilizing at the $0.11 level. Volume profile remained at $104.53M, indicating continued selling pressure. The main trend is downward, with trading below EMA20 ($0.15). MACD gives a bearish signal with a negative histogram, while RSI at 21.06 is in oversold territory – this could prepare the ground for a potential reaction rally but remains risky until the trend structure breaks. In the bigger picture, the overall weakness in the crypto market and rising Bitcoin dominance reinforce the distribution phase in altcoins like OP. For position traders, the fate of $0.1100 will be the week’s main theme; if it holds, the upside target could extend to $0.2080, while a breakdown puts deeper corrections on the agenda. Check spot data for OP detailed spot analysis.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

On long-term charts, OP is moving within a down channel that began from the peaks at the end of 2025 (around $0.2432). On the weekly timeframe, the lower highs and lower lows structure is clear: consecutive bearish candles over the last three weeks preserve the trend’s strength. The Supertrend indicator is signaling bearish, and the price is well below the 200-week EMA ($0.18). From a market cycle perspective, OP appears to have entered the distribution phase after the 2024-2025 bull run; however, assuming the crypto supercycle continues, this could be an accumulation base. As long as the main trend remains downward (until a break above $0.1285), short bias dominates. For portfolio managers, a return to $0.2432 is required for a long-term trend change – in the current setup, we recommend patience and selective entries.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

According to Wyckoff methodology, OP has transitioned from the markup phase to markdown in recent months; weekly volume spikes align with sales, indicating smart money distribution. However, around $0.1100, volume profile POC (Point of Control) formation and RSI divergence (price making new lows while RSI makes higher lows) resemble a potential spring/reaction low. Oversold levels (RSI<25) increase capitulation risk but also open a window for accumulation. Although distribution patterns dominate (head-and-shoulders-like structure at $0.16), a hold at $0.1100 could signal re-accumulation. Key to watch: Bounces without volume increase carry fake-out risk. In OP futures market data, funding rates are negative – short squeeze potential is low.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, OP is leaning on the $0.1100 major support (score 80/100). On 1D, there is 1 support/2 resistance confluence: Price is below EMA50 ($0.13), MACD histogram is narrowing. Oversold Stochastic crossover shows bullish divergence, but the trend filter is bearish. Short-term confluence: Daily remains bearish until break above $0.1285 resistance. Position traders can look for long opportunities on daily close above $0.115.

Weekly Chart View

On the weekly, 1 support/3 resistance is strong (total 9 levels confluence across 1D/3D/1W). Price is at the channel lower band ($0.11), 1W RSI at 21 in multi-year lows. Bearish engulfing candle dominated the week, but volume decline warns of reversal. Weekly Supertrend flip requires $0.1285. Long-term confluence supports the downtrend; wait for weekly doji or hammer for accumulation.

Critical Decision Points

Main support: $0.1100 (high volume node, psychological level – breakdown opens path to $0.09). First resistance: $0.1285 (EMA20/channel middle band). Second resistance: $0.16 (previous swing high). Upside target: $0.2080 (R:R 1:4 potential). Downside risk: Below $0.10 (score 22). Trend structure remains intact above $0.1100; acceleration expected below. Full list for OP and other analyses.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Bullish Case

$0.1100 hold + daily close above $0.1285: Long positions entry around $0.115, stop below $0.1090. Target1: $0.16 (partial profit), Target2: $0.2080. R:R >1:3. RSI>40 and volume increase as confirmation. BTC above $64K supportive.

In Bearish Case

$0.1100 breakdown (daily close below): Short entry $0.1090, stop above $0.1120. Target: $0.10, then $0.09. R:R 1:2+. Aggressive short while no MACD negative divergence. Wait and see with weak altcoin rotation.

Bitcoin Correlation

OP is highly correlated with BTC (0.85+); BTC in downtrend at $63.5K with Supertrend bearish. If BTC supports at $62.5K/$60K break, OP accelerates below $0.11. BTC recovery above $64.3K triggers OP $0.13 test. Rising dominance fuels altcoin sales – monitor BTC leadership.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week, $0.1100 close and BTC movements are critical; hold brings RSI bounce, breakdown deep correction. Follow volume and multi-TF confluences. Position traders focus on risk management – be selective in macro weakness.