Bitcoin’s Valuation Model Hints At $500K Cycle Average, Analyst Says

Bitcoin is trading near $67,300, well off its recent high of $74,000. One well-known analyst says that dip barely matters — he’s looking at a cycle average closer to half a million dollars.

A Model Built On Scarcity

PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, says Bitcoin’s price during the current 2024–2028 halving cycle could average around $500,000, with a range stretching from $250,000 to $1 million.

The model is built on a simple premise: as Bitcoin’s supply grows more slowly — thanks to halving events that cut mining rewards roughly every four years — and demand holds steady or rises, the price should follow.

Reports indicate that PlanB is careful to frame the figure as a cycle average, not a ceiling or a guaranteed peak.

Bitcoin halvings reduce the number of new coins entering circulation. The most recent one took place in April 2024. Historically, each halving has been followed by a significant price run. That pattern is the backbone of PlanB’s argument.

Not Everyone Is Buying It

Crypto analyst Bobby A puts his estimate at $200,000 to $250,000 by 2026 or 2027 — still a major jump from current levels, but nowhere near PlanB’s midpoint.

According to Bobby A, Stock-to-Flow works as a rough long-term guide but falls short when used to pin down specific price targets in complex markets.

He argues the model captures Bitcoin’s broad growth story without accounting for the many variables that move prices in real time.

That skepticism is not without basis. Stock-to-Flow drew sharp criticism after Bitcoin failed to sustain the price levels the model projected during the 2020–2024 cycle.

Some analysts wrote off the model entirely. Others say it was never meant to work as a precise forecasting tool to begin with — a nuance that often gets lost in headline-driven coverage.

Several outside pressures have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent pullback. Geopolitical tensions and shifting inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds — which won US regulatory approval in early 2024 — have added to short-term volatility.

Data shows that ETF inflows, which helped push Bitcoin to record highs earlier this year, have been inconsistent in recent months.

Reports note that many analysts view the current period as a consolidation phase following the strong rally that carried Bitcoin above $72,000. Whether that consolidation leads to a renewed push higher — or signals a longer plateau — remains an open question.

PlanB’s $500,000 average would require Bitcoin to climb more than seven times its current price before the cycle ends. That’s a large number. But in a market that went from under $20,000 to over $73,000 in roughly 18 months, some investors say stranger things have happened.

Featured image from Free3D.com, chart from TradingView