AXS Technical Analysis Mar 14

AXS climbed to the $1.23 level with a strong %5.70 rise in the last 24 hours, catching a short-term breather in the general downtrend; but can this momentum be sustained under Bitcoin’s dominant decline?

Market Outlook and Current Situation

Axie Infinity Shards (AXS), one of the leading tokens in the gaming and play-to-earn ecosystem, continues to be significantly affected by the general fluctuations in the crypto market. With its current price fixed at the $1.23 level, AXS traded in the $1.14 – $1.26 range over the last 24 hours and recorded a %5.70 increase. Although this movement is supported by $60 million in volume, the asset is still positioned within a broader downtrend. As a mid-cap altcoin in terms of market capitalization, AXS is trying to partially recover from the losses it suffered in recent weeks, but macroeconomic uncertainties and the rise in Bitcoin dominance are among the main factors preventing an altcoin rally.

In the general market context, AXS’s performance parallels the stagnation in the NFT and metaverse sectors. Having experienced a dramatic drop from its 2021 peak levels, the token was trading near bottom levels by the end of 2025. Today’s recovery reflects short-term buyer interest, but the relative weakness in volume ($60M) and the general downtrend signal are forcing investors to remain cautious. When examining AXS spot analyses, it is seen that this level carries potential for liquidity hunting if tested. As the market is shaped by the Fed’s interest rate decisions and global risk appetite, volatility for altcoins like AXS will remain high.

Looking at multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, we detect a total of 11 strong levels across the 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1D with 1 support/2 resistance, 3D with 1S/2R, and 1W with 2S/3R distribution. This confluence indicates that the price will be stuck in the $1.20 – $1.30 range in the near term, but the breakout direction will be decisive.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

AXS’s most critical support level is positioned at $1.2142 (strength score: 66/100), which is located just above the 24-hour lows and overlaps with the EMA20 ($1.22). This zone could serve as the last line of defense for short-term buyers; if breached below, a deeper pullback could be triggered. Historically, this support has been tested multiple times during the consolidation periods in December 2025 and held. In MTF analysis, the $1.2142 strengthened by support confluence on the 3D timeframe will act as the first buffer for a 5-7% pullback. Investors should closely monitor volume increases and candle formations here (e.g., hammer or doji).

Resistance Barriers

On the resistance front, $1.2252 (score: 77/100) stands out as the nearest obstacle, just %0.4 above the current price. This level is a zone reinforced by the Supertrend’s bearish signal, and if broken, $1.2800 (score: 73/100) will become the next target. On the 1W chart, these resistances coincide with the Fibonacci retracement levels of %38.2 and %50, creating strong selling pressure. Although the recent rise extended to $1.26, testing these barriers, the closes below confirm bearish divergence. In the AXS futures market, these resistances carry liquidity trap potential for leveraged positions.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI (14) is balanced in the neutral zone at 47.12; moving away from oversold supports short-term momentum, but volume is needed for a crossover above 50. The MACD indicator is giving a bullish signal with a positive histogram, trading above the signal line and heralding a potential crossover. This confirms the bullish short-term structure of the price above the EMA20 ($1.22). On the other hand, Supertrend remains bearish and points to the $1.52 resistance, weakening the overall trend strength.

From a trend analysis perspective, although the downtrend continues on the 1D chart, short-term EMA crossovers (EMA10 > EMA20) signal recovery. Bollinger Bands are contracting, with a volatility explosion expected. In MTF, while 1W Supertrend is bearish, neutral tendency dominates on 3D; these conflicting signals predict a range-bound market. According to the volume profile, the drop in volume during upswings shows limited trend strength – $70M+ volume is essential for a sustainable rally.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

In terms of risk/reward ratio, the bullish target at $1.8780 (score:26/100) offers %52 upside from the current price, while the bearish scenario at $0.7590 (score:28/100) carries %38 downside risk – R/R approximately 1:1.4 in favor of bullish. However, the general downtrend and low target scores make aggressive long positions risky. In the positive scenario, a break above $1.2252 could lead to $1.28, then to the $1.52 Supertrend; in the negative, loss of $1.2142 brings a return to $1.14 lows.

The trading outlook is cautiously optimistic: long opportunities at $1.2142 support for short-term bottom hunters, and short setups for those awaiting resistance breaks. With high volatility, stop-losses are mandatory; overall market risk is medium-high. For balanced portfolios, AXS can be monitored with %2-5 allocation, but macro triggers (e.g., BTC breakout) will be decisive.

Bitcoin Correlation

AXS exhibits high correlation with Bitcoin (%0.85+) among altcoins; BTC’s -%1.16 drop at the $70,632 level and downtrend are limiting AXS’s recovery. If BTC supports at $68,999, $65,618, and $60,000 are tested, a cascade effect will inevitably bring AXS down to $1.10s. Conversely, if BTC advances toward resistances at $70,841, $72,791, and $75,561, an altcoin rally could be triggered – putting $1.40+ targets on the table for AXS. BTC Supertrend’s bearish signal is a red flag for altcoins; rising dominance will continue to pressure AXS.