NordFX Weekly Forex Forecast — FOMC Minutes Week: USD, Yields and Gold Before June

Markets head into the week of May 19 on edge. The Fed held rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at its April 28–29 meeting, and Wednesday’s release of those FOMC minutes is the week’s central event — traders will comb every line for signals ahead of June.

🇺🇸 USD and Yields — Hawkish Momentum

The DXY dollar index closed near 99.27 on Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.63% on Monday, its highest since January 2025. The catalyst: April CPI at 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023) and PPI surging at its fastest pace since 2022, both driven by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Rate cut expectations for 2026 have been fully priced out. Markets now price 50%+ odds of a Fed hike before year-end. Hawkish FOMC minutes = more dollar upside.

📅 Week’s key events:

• May 20: FOMC minutes
• May 21: US jobless claims + Flash PMIs
• May 22: UMich inflation expectations

💶 EUR/USD — Bearish Bias

Trading near 1.1620, a five-week low. Support at 1.1580–1.16, resistance at 1.18–1.19. Eurozone CPI jumped to 3.0% in April on energy. The ECB next meets June 11, with markets pricing an 86% probability of a 25bp hike. But a hawkish Fed dominates this week — downside pressure prevails. Watch 1.1580.

🇬🇧 GBP/USD — Five Days of Losses

Cable testing 1.3300 after five consecutive down sessions. UK political turmoil and rising gilt yields weigh on the pound. BoE holds at 3.75%. No local catalyst this week — GBP follows broader USD strength. A break below 1.3300 opens the door toward 1.3150.

🪙 Gold (XAU/USD) — Under Pressure, But Watch the Dip

Gold trades near $4,540/oz, down over 5% in the past month, retreating from January’s all-time high of $5,589. Stronger dollar, elevated yields, and no Fed cuts in sight are all headwinds. Technical support sits at $4,400-$4,500 (200-day MA zone). A hawkish minutes print Wednesday would add downside pressure near-term. Structurally, J.P. Morgan still targets $5,000+ by Q4 2026 on central bank buying and geopolitical risk — meaning this correction may be a window for patient traders.

🌍 Geopolitical X-Factor

The US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure remain the dominant macro risk this week. Trump warned Iran this weekend the “clock is ticking.” Any escalation = higher oil, higher inflation fears, higher dollar. Any ceasefire signal = swift dollar selloff and gold spike. This overrides any data release.

📌 Summary: USD and yields stay supported as long as FOMC minutes confirm the hawkish shift. EUR/USD and GBP/USD face continued downside. Gold remains technically fragile near key support, but the long-term bull case is intact.

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📊 NordFX Weekly Forex Forecast — FOMC Minutes Week: USD, Yields and Gold Before June was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.