Coinbase Could Jump 65% as Crypto Recovery Unfolds
The post Coinbase Could Jump 65% as Crypto Recovery Unfolds appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
Few large-cap stocks have performed quite like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) over the past 12 months. After peaking near $444.64 in the prior bull run, shares have round-tripped on a brutal crypto pullback. Our model sees significant upside from here.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Coinbase is $271.94, implying 64.97% upside from the recent close of $164.84. The recommendation is buy, with a confidence level of 90%. That is a high-conviction call, anchored by forward earnings recovery, a deep subscription revenue base, and analyst consensus well above today’s quote.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $164.84 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $271.94 |
| Upside | 64.97% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
Crypto Winter Has Hit COIN Hard
Coinbase shares are down 27.11% year to date and 46.55% over the past year, badly lagging the broader market. Bitcoin is down 27.05% YTD and Ethereum has tumbled 41.86%, squeezing the trading volumes that drive Coinbase’s transaction line.
Q1 2026 results, released May 7, 2026, showed the damage. Revenue of $1.41 billion fell 30.54% year over year, missing consensus by 4.72%. EPS came in at -$1.49 versus a $0.0444 estimate, weighed down by $482.40 million in markdowns on crypto held for investment. Management responded with a 14% headcount cut targeting roughly $500 million in annualized savings.
The Case for $400+
The bull case rests on Coinbase’s evolution beyond a pure trading venue. Subscription and services revenue reached 44% of net revenue in Q1, with stablecoin revenue of $305 million riding a USDC market cap that touched $80 billion in March.
Prediction markets crossed $100 million annualized within two months of launch, retail derivatives are tracking toward a $250 million tier, and DEX trading volume doubled quarter over quarter.
Industry tailwinds are sizeable. The stablecoin market is projected to grow from $300 billion to $3 trillion by 2030, with tokenized real-world assets potentially reaching $16 trillion.
If Coinbase rides those waves, our bull case scenario points to $406.07 over the next 12 months. Analyst consensus sits at $229.74, with 21 buys against just 3 sells.
What Could Go Wrong
Coinbase remains tethered to crypto prices. Total crypto market cap and volumes both fell more than 20% quarter over quarter in Q1, and a beta of 3.32 means downside in BTC and ETH translates into amplified equity moves.
Insiders have been net sellers across 90 recent transactions, and the forward P/E of 77 leaves no room for further volume erosion.
The Q1 GAAP loss was largely a non-cash crypto markdown, and adjusted EBITDA was still positive at $303.30 million, the 13th straight positive quarter.
Cash of $10.21 billion and $2.10 billion in remaining buyback authorization give management room to defend the stock. Our bear case scenario still lands at $227.99, above today’s price.
Coinbase Price Prediction 2026-2030
My 24/7 Wall St. price target is $271.94, buy, with 90% confidence. The factor tipping the scale is the durability of subscription revenue, which now cushions trading swings far better than during the 2022 cycle.
The setup looks constructive if BTC stabilizes above $60,000 and Q2 transaction revenue tracks management’s $215 million May 5 pace. Caution is warranted if stablecoin revenue rolls over or another data-security event hits the cost base.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $221.08 |
| 2027 | $271.94 |
| 2028 | $365.00 |
| 2029 | $490.00 |
| 2030 | $645.59 |
These projections assume Coinbase executes its Everything Exchange strategy and stablecoin and prediction-market revenue compound through the decade. Significant upside or downside could result from crypto cycle timing, regulatory shifts under the GENIUS Act framework, or a major security incident.
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The post Coinbase Could Jump 65% as Crypto Recovery Unfolds appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
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