Cisco Stock Gains 69% Over the Past Year: Can It Still Bring More Upside in 2026?

Key Takeaways for Cisco Systems Stock as of July 2026

• 13 analysts rate Cisco stock a buy, 4 outperform, 8 hold, 1 underperform, 1 no opinion, with a mean target of $127, a 9% gap above the July 1 close of $117.
• TIKR’s mid-case model puts fair value at $116 by July 2030, implying a total return of negative 0.5% and an annualized return of negative 0.1% over 4.1 years.
• At current levels Cisco stock looks fairly valued to slightly rich against its own EBIT trajectory, with EBIT margins expected to hold near 35% through fiscal 2027 even as AI infrastructure orders surge.
• Following the May 13 print, Cisco raised its fiscal 2026 AI infrastructure order outlook to roughly $9 billion, 4.5 times the fiscal 2025 total.

Cisco stock trades below the Street’s $127 mean target but roughly in line with TIKR’s own model. See which view the numbers back on TIKR for free →

Cisco Stock Rides a Record AI Infrastructure Order Surge

Cisco Systems (CSCO) delivered record fiscal third-quarter revenue of $15.8 billion on May 13, up 12% year over year and above the high end of guidance. Product orders jumped 35% year over year, with hyperscaler orders growing triple digits and pulling total AI infrastructure orders to $1.9 billion for the quarter.

That strength pushed the year-to-date AI infrastructure order total to $5.3 billion, already ahead of management’s prior full-year target of $5 billion. CEO Chuck Robbins told investors on the call that the company now expects “approximately $9 billion” in AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers in fiscal 2026, calling it 4.5 times the fiscal 2025 total.

Networking product revenue accelerated to 25% growth, driven by campus refresh and data center switching, which grew more than 40% in orders. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.06 beat the $1.04 IBES estimate, even as gross margin slipped 260 basis points to 66% on higher memory costs.

Security stayed roughly flat as the Splunk business continued shifting from on-premise licenses to cloud subscriptions, a mix change management expects to normalize by the first half of fiscal 2027. CFO Mark Patterson pointed to the durability of the AI hyperscale pipeline directly on the Q3 earnings call, noting the company expects to recognize “at least $6 billion” of AI hyperscale revenue in fiscal 2027 alone.

Beneath the order growth, Cisco is also positioning security as a second AI-driven growth lever. The company is a founding member of Project Glasswing, testing Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview model for cybersecurity defense, and it launched Cloud Control, an agentic platform for managing AI-driven threats, at Cisco Live in early June. Management was candid that Mythos-driven orders remained negligible in the quarter, but flagged rising customer urgency around patching unsupported infrastructure as the more immediate opportunity.

Cisco also announced a restructuring plan tied to the AI pivot, expecting up to $1 billion in pretax charges to reallocate resources toward silicon, optics, security and AI. Fiscal fourth-quarter guidance calls for revenue of $16.7 billion to $16.9 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.16 to $1.18.

Cisco stock just posted its strongest AI infrastructure order quarter on record. Track how hyperscaler demand feeds into Cisco’s forward estimates on TIKR for free →

Cisco Stock Sits Below a $127 Mean Target Backed by 13 Buy Ratings

Wall Street’s consensus on Cisco stock leans bullish, with 13 buy ratings, 4 outperforms, 8 holds, 1 underperform and 1 no opinion among 27 analysts covering Cisco. The mean target price of $127 sits 9% above the July 1 close of $117, and the median target of $130 points to an even wider gap.

Wall Street Expects Cisco Stock’s EBIT to Grow 16% in Fiscal Fourth Quarter

Cisco posted EBIT of $5.41 billion in the fiscal third quarter, up 11% year over year, with EBIT margins holding at 34%. Analysts expect EBIT of $5.84 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, a 16% increase, as AI infrastructure and networking revenue continue to scale ahead of the cost base.

EBIT is projected to reach $5.75 billion in the fiscal first quarter of 2027 and climb to $6.26 billion by the fiscal fourth quarter of 2027, with margins expanding to 35%.

That trajectory assumes the AI hyperscale business recognizes at least $6 billion in revenue next fiscal year, up from roughly $4 billion expected in fiscal 2026.

The tension sits in the memory cost backdrop. Cisco absorbed a 330 basis point hit to non-GAAP product gross margin in the third quarter from higher memory prices, even as 20-plus internal programs and price increases worked to offset it.

Whether EBIT margins actually reach 35% by fiscal 2027 depends on memory costs stabilizing at the level management has priced into guidance.

Cisco Stock’s EBIT Dwarfs Security and Networking Peers Through Fiscal 2027

Cisco posted EBIT of $5.41 billion in the fiscal third quarter, more than four times Arista Networks’ (ANET) $1.21 billion and over seven times Palo Alto Networks’ (PANW) $0.76 billion and Fortinet’s (FTNT) $0.76 billion.

That gap holds through the forecast window. By the fiscal fourth quarter of 2027, Cisco’s EBIT is projected to reach $6.26 billion against $1.61 billion for Arista, $1.15 billion for Palo Alto Networks and $0.71 billion for Fortinet.

Scale, not growth rate, separates Cisco stock from this peer set. Arista’s EBIT is set to grow faster off a smaller base, but Cisco’s absolute EBIT lead over its nearest peer stays above $4.6 billion in every quarter through fiscal 2027.

Cisco’s $116 TIKR Target Sits Below the Street, With Little Room Left in the Stock

TIKR’s mid-case model values Cisco Systems at $116 by July 2030, implying a total return of negative 0.5% from the current price of $117, or negative 0.1% annualized over 4.1 years.

That return profile places Cisco stock well behind typical expectations for a company posting double-digit AI infrastructure order growth, and it sits meaningfully below the Street’s own $127 mean target.

The gap reflects how much of the AI buildout story is already baked into the current $117 share price after the stock’s run from $89 in April.

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Should You Invest in Cisco Systems?

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