Gold Surges 1.4% as Disappointing Jobs Report Dampens Fed Hike Expectations

Key Takeaways

• Spot gold advanced 1.4% on Friday, securing its first weekly advance in approximately five weeks
• Disappointing U.S. employment figures (57,000 June additions) lowered Federal Reserve tightening expectations
• Market probability of a September rate increase dropped to 53.5% from 65% following the employment report
• Other precious metals including silver, platinum, and palladium posted significant Friday gains
• Gold remains approximately 22% below its January record peak of $5,300

Precious metal prices advanced significantly on Friday, positioning gold for its first weekly increase in over a month. Spot gold traded near $4,182 per ounce, marking a 1.4% daily increase and approximately 2.3% weekly gain.

The rally followed Thursday’s release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data revealing the economy created only 57,000 positions in June. This figure significantly underperformed the 115,000 consensus estimate and fell short of May’s downwardly revised 129,000 additions.

The disappointing employment report diminished concerns about continued Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Robust labor market conditions represent one of the central bank’s primary considerations when implementing restrictive policy measures.

Market participants had priced approximately 65% odds for a September rate increase prior to the employment data. Following the release, those expectations declined to 53.5%, based on CME’s FedWatch tool readings.

Factors Behind Gold’s Recent Weakness

Gold has experienced challenging conditions throughout the year. The precious metal recorded its weakest quarterly performance in 13 years during the April-June period, declining approximately 13%.

A strengthening U.S. dollar, elevated inflation concerns, and aggressive Federal Reserve communications have all pressured prices downward. The February escalation of U.S.-Iran military tensions also disrupted markets and questioned gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal.

Gold continues trading roughly 22% beneath its record high exceeding $5,300 achieved in January 2026.

The U.S. Dollar Index retreated from near 13-month peaks following Thursday’s employment figures, providing support for gold and other metals.

Broader Precious Metals Advance

Silver experienced particularly strong performance. Spot silver surged approximately 2.9% to $62.77 per ounce, positioning for a weekly advance of roughly 6.7%.

Spot platinum climbed 2.8% to $1,660.10 per ounce. Palladium increased about 1% to $1,280.09.

Both gold and silver delivered exceptional returns in 2025, posting gains of 66% and 135% respectively. Year-to-date, gold has declined 3% while silver has fallen 12%.

Analysts from OCBC indicated they maintain a “cautiously constructive” outlook on gold following the payrolls release.

They noted the weaker employment figures help diminish risks of additional aggressive Federal Reserve measures. Nevertheless, they emphasized that with unemployment levels holding steady and inflation risks persisting, careful assessment remains warranted.

OCBC stated that a more sustainable gold recovery would require declining real yields, stabilizing investor demand, and softening Federal Reserve rhetoric.

The institution had reduced its gold and silver forecasts earlier in the week, acknowledging ongoing pressure from U.S. rate expectations and elevated yield levels.

Market activity remained subdued on Friday ahead of a U.S. holiday closure.

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