Gold Prices Rise After Weak US Jobs Data Cuts Fed Rate Hike Bets

TLDR

• Spot gold rose 1.4% Friday, heading for its first weekly gain since late May
• Weak U.S. jobs data (57,000 jobs added in June) reduced Fed rate hike expectations
• Markets now price a 53.5% chance of a September rate hike, down from 65% before the report
• Silver, platinum, and palladium also rose sharply on Friday
• Gold is still down about 22% from its all-time high of $5,300 set in January

Gold prices climbed on Friday, putting the precious metal on track for its first positive week in five. Spot gold was trading at around $4,182 an ounce, up 1.4% on the day and roughly 2.3% higher for the week.

The move came after U.S. nonfarm payrolls data released Thursday showed the American economy added just 57,000 jobs in June. That was well below the 115,000 forecast and the downwardly revised 129,000 added in May.

The weak jobs report eased fears that the Federal Reserve would continue hiking interest rates. A strong labor market is one of the Fed’s key conditions for tightening policy.

Before the jobs report, markets were pricing in about a 65% chance of a rate hike in September. After the data, that dropped to 53.5%, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

Why Gold Had Been Under Pressure

Gold has had a rough year. The metal posted its worst quarter in 13 years in the three months to June, falling around 13% over that period.

A firmer U.S. dollar, rising inflation concerns, and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have all weighed on prices. The outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war in February also rattled markets and called into question gold’s safe haven status.

Gold is still trading about 22% below its all-time high of over $5,300 reached in January 2026.

The U.S. Dollar Index fell from near 13-month highs after Thursday’s jobs data, which helped lift gold and other metals.

Other Precious Metals Also Rise

Silver had a strong day too. Spot silver jumped around 2.9% to $62.77 an ounce, putting it on track for a weekly gain of about 6.7%.

Spot platinum rose 2.8% to $1,660.10 an ounce. Palladium was up about 1% at $1,280.09.

Both gold and silver had record-breaking years in 2025, gaining 66% and 135% respectively. This year, gold is down 3% and silver is down 12%.

Analysts at OCBC said they were “cautiously constructive” on gold following the payrolls data.

They said the softer jobs numbers help reduce the risk of further aggressive Fed action. However, they noted that with unemployment still steady and inflation risks intact, caution is still needed.

OCBC said a more lasting recovery in gold would require real yields to ease more, investor demand to stabilize, and the Fed to soften its tone.

The bank had cut its gold and silver price forecasts earlier in the week, citing continued pressure from U.S. rate expectations and high yields.

Trading volumes were thin on Friday ahead of a U.S. market holiday.

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