Intel (INTC) Stock: One Analyst Thinks It Could Double From Here – Calls it “Too Good to Ignore”

• HSBC analyst Frank Lee doubled his Intel price target from $100 to $200, maintaining a Buy rating
• Lee says Intel’s foundry business is gaining traction, with design commitments expected to start in 2H26
• Customers including Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are cited as growing engagements
• HSBC raised its 2026 server CPU shipment growth forecast to 25%, and 2027 to 30%
• Wall Street consensus remains a Hold, with an average price target of ~$101, implying downside from current levels

Intel (INTC) got a major boost on Thursday after HSBC analyst Frank Lee doubled his price target on the chipmaker to $200, up from $100, while keeping his Buy rating intact. INTC opened at $120.35 on Friday.

Intel Corp., INTC

Lee, ranked as a top analyst on TipRanks, made one thing clear: Intel’s foundry story is now “too good to ignore.”

The upgrade reflects a shift in how HSBC views the foundry business. Back in April, the firm left it out of its valuation entirely, citing uncertainty around outside customers. That caution has faded.

Lee now says customer engagements are growing, and “design commitments” are expected to begin in the second half of 2026. That’s a meaningful change in tone.

He also pointed to Intel’s expanding relationships with some of the biggest names in tech — Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon. Several of those projects are expected to move forward in 2H26.

Intel’s EMIB packaging technology also got a mention. Lee suggested it could pick up business as chipmakers hunt for alternatives to rival foundries that are running tight on capacity.

Server Business Gets an Upgrade Too

HSBC didn’t stop at the foundry. Lee called server CPUs the “key driver” of Intel’s earnings growth going forward.

The firm bumped its 2026 server CPU shipment growth forecast to 25%, up from 20%. For 2027, it moved the number to 30%, from a prior estimate of 20%.

Strong AI server demand is seen as the engine behind that growth over the next two years.

Intel’s most recent earnings showed some momentum. The company reported Q1 EPS of $0.29, smashing the consensus estimate of $0.01. Revenue came in at $13.58 billion, above analyst expectations of $12.32 billion — up 7.4% year-over-year.

Institutional Investors Adding Positions

On the institutional side, Turtle Creek Wealth Advisors lifted its Intel stake by 17.3% in Q1, bringing its total holding to 38,906 units worth roughly $1.72 million.

Other firms have also been adding. iA Global Asset Management raised its stake by 17% in Q4. Van ECK Associates boosted its position by 18.3% in Q3, and now holds over 55 million units.

Institutional investors and hedge funds collectively own 64.53% of Intel’s stock.

Not everyone inside the company is holding, though. EVP April Miller sold 40,256 units in early May at an average price of $99.53, reducing her position by 27.7%.

Despite HSBC’s bullish call, broader Wall Street sentiment remains cautious. The consensus rating across analysts is a Hold, based on 11 Buys, 25 Holds, and 2 Sells over the past three months. The average price target sits at $101.09 — implying around 16% downside from current trading levels.

Intel’s 52-week range runs from $18.97 to $142.35, with the stock currently trading well above its 200-day moving average of $70.62.

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