Settlement Period: October 21, 2026–October 28, 2026 Release Date: October 29, 2026 Data Sources: MEXC platform data, Farside Investors, CoinGlass, CoinDesk, Reuters, CNBC TL;DR Macro Outlook: TheSettlement Period: October 21, 2026–October 28, 2026 Release Date: October 29, 2026 Data Sources: MEXC platform data, Farside Investors, CoinGlass, CoinDesk, Reuters, CNBC TL;DR Macro Outlook: The
Learn/Market Insights/Crypto Analysis/MEXC Crypto Macro and Trading Weekly Report: FOMC Holds Steady, Can Bitcoin Hold the $80,000 Mark?
MEXC Crypto Macro and Trading Weekly Report: FOMC Holds Steady, Can Bitcoin Hold the $80,000 Mark?
Settlement Period: October 21, 2026–October 28, 2026
Release Date: October 29, 2026
Data Sources: MEXC platform data, Farside Investors, CoinGlass, CoinDesk, Reuters, CNBC
TL;DR
- Macro Outlook: The FRS maintained interest rates at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct 28, but two members voted for a rate hike. The probability of a rate hike in December rose from 78% to 86%. The decision held no surprises; the pressure stems from the lingering expectations of future rate hikes.
- Market Performance: BTC fluctuated around $80,000. Over the weekend of Oct 24–25, it briefly dropped to approximately $79,220, triggering $815 million in liquidations across the network. Following the decision, it returned to near $81,000 but has yet to reclaim $81,400.
- Capital Divergence: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $138 million from Oct 21–27, while exchanges recorded their largest single-day net BTC outflow in five weeks. ETF capital flows remain weak, whereas on-chain holders are withdrawing coins to accumulate, indicating opposing trends.
- Outlook for Next Week: Focus on the PCE data and oil prices on Oct 29. Watch the support level at $80,000; if broken, look toward $78,000 and $76,000.
1. This Week's Main Theme: What Happened?
Two events shaped this week's market movements. First, reports of U.S. evacuations from the Middle East on October 24–25 gained traction over the weekend while U.S. stock markets were closed, making the crypto market the only major asset class available for selling, resulting in $815 million in liquidations within 24 hours. Second, on October 28, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, stating that "inflation remains elevated." The vote was 10 to 2, with both dissenters advocating for a rate hike. Chair Walsh made no commitments regarding December at the press conference, stating only that "more information is needed," and noted that energy prices have "risen again in recent weeks."
2. FOMC Decision Review: Why Did "Holding Steady" Still Put Pressure on BTC?
Event Summary: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on October 28, with a vote of 10 to 2; both dissenters advocated for a rate hike. The statement noted that "inflation remains elevated"; Chair Walsh made no commitments regarding December, stating only that "more information is needed," and mentioned that energy prices have "risen again in recent weeks."
Cross-Asset Transmission: High oil prices → Persistent inflation expectations → December rate hike pricing rises to 86% → 10-year US Treasury yield rises to 5.04% → Higher risk-free rates, tighter USD liquidity → BTC under pressure → ETH and SOL decline amplifies
- Oil Prices: On Oct 28, WTI crude was around $101.7/barrel, with Brent above $110. Reports suggest the US may take short-term military action against Iran after the midterm elections on Nov 3, making energy inflation difficult to ease in the short term. MEXC allows tracking oil prices via OIL(WTI)USDT perpetual contracts.
- US Treasuries: After the decision, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by about 5 basis points to 5.04%, while the 2-year yield declined. The market is pricing in a "rate hike delayed to December" rather than "no rate hike."
- Crypto Assets: Over the past 7 days, ETH fell 5.1%, SOL fell 4.8%, and BTC fell 3.4%. Amid tightening expectations, altcoins dropped about 1.5 times more than BTC.
- Tech Stock Sentiment: The AI sector is a coincident indicator for crypto risk appetite. This week, Tesla's Q3 free cash flow turned positive to $1.5 billion, and full-year capital expenditure was lowered; Meta saw cash outflow for the first time due to AI investments, dragging the Nasdaq down 2.6% on Oct 22. On Oct 26, Anthropic publicly filed for an IPO, planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. AI chip stocks rose for three consecutive days afterward, helping the Nasdaq recover losses. On MEXC, you can trade Tesla via the TSLAUSDT stock contract.
Key Focus of Long-Short Game:
- Bulls: Rate hold is fully priced in; BTC rose instead of falling after the decision; net outflows from exchanges indicate accumulation at lower levels; weekend liquidations cleared some leverage.
- Bears: 86% probability of a rate hike in December, with two votes favoring a hike; tightening is not over; ETFs are still seeing outflows; post-election US-Iran tensions may push oil prices higher again.
- Market Bias: Short-term consolidation. BTC held above $80,000 but failed to break through $81,400; neither bulls nor bears have gained the initiative; direction awaits signals from PCE data and ETF flows.
Alt: BTC/USDT Candlestick Chart from October 21–28, 2026
3. Where are the key support and resistance levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum next week?
$80,000 was the "fig leaf" fiercely contested by bulls and bears for BTC this week, while $81,400 served as the "ceiling" suppressing any rebound. Although weekend liquidations cleared out some leverage, they did not change the short-term consolidation pattern; the direction awaits signals from PCE data and ETF fund flows.
[The following levels are for technical market observation only and do not constitute investment advice. Data sources: crypto.news, On-chain Data]
Key BTC Price Levels and Logic
Type | Price Level | Basis and Logic |
Resistance | $81,400 | Located at the 9-day moving average; requires three consecutive daily closes above this level to confirm short-term strength. |
Resistance | $82,000–$82,500 | Previous dense trading zone above the 21-day moving average (approx. $81,900), with heavy selling pressure. |
Support | $80,000 | Psychological barrier; briefly breached over the weekend but quickly recovered, showing significant buy-side support. |
Support | $78,000 / $76,000 | Next tier of technical support; will be tested sequentially if $80,000 fails. |
Strong Support | $76,500 | Average cost basis for Short-Term Holders (STH). CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost notes that STHs currently have an average profit margin of about 5.5%; this cost line is a key defense for holders protecting their entry prices. |
Note: CryptoQuant's latest analysis clearly sets the STH cost basis at $76,500 and points out that current STHs are still in profit (profit margin of about 5.5%). This means there is a real "mental accounting" support logic at this level, rather than just technical charting.
ETH Key Levels and Logic
Type | Price Level | Basis and Logic |
Resistance | $2,400 | Lower edge of the consolidation platform in mid-October, also near SMA20 (approx. $2,426) |
Resistance | $2,530 | Upper edge of the mid-October range, close to SMA50 (approx. $2,538) |
Support | $2,300 | On October 25, it broke below for the first time in two months but quickly recovered; the lower shadow confirmed the presence of buying pressure |
Strong Support | $2,160 | Location of SMA200, the last line of defense for Ethereum's medium-term trend |
Note: ETH's current technical stance is weak: RSI14 is around 37.5, in a weak zone; closing price is below SMA20 and SMA50, with MACD in a bearish alignment. This means ETH's rebound requires stronger catalysts, not just a technical repair.
Capital Flow Signal: Divergence Between ETF and On-Chain Trends
This is the most noteworthy detail of the week: ETF funds are withdrawing, but on-chain holdings are being moved off exchanges for accumulation.
- ETF Side: Farside data shows a significant inflow of $524.8 million on October 21 (IBIT $235 million, FBTC $212.7 million), followed by a combined outflow of $774 million on October 22–23, and a renewed inflow of $110 million on October 26. The overall pattern was "inflows in the first half of the week, outflows in the second half," resulting in a slight net outflow for the week.
- On-Chain Side: According to Santiment data, approximately 14,942 BTC had a net outflow from exchanges on October 27, marking the largest single-day net outflow in five weeks. This indicates that despite redemptions through ETF channels, spot holders are moving their holdings off exchanges rather than preparing to sell.
Meaning of Divergence: ETF outflows are mostly short-term position adjustments by trading capital, while net on-chain outflows reflect holders' "hoarding" behavior. When the two move in opposite directions, short-term prices may face pressure, but mid-term supply is tightening.
Alt: BTC ETF Flows
Scenario Analysis
Scenario | Trigger Signals | Observation Range |
Bullish | BTC three-day close above 81,400; continuous net inflows into ETFs; PCE below expectations or oil prices decline | BTC target 82,000–82,500, next resistance 84,200; ETH target 2,400–2,530 |
Bearish | BTC effectively breaks below 80,000; ETFs return to outflows; post-election oil price surge and continued rise in December rate hike pricing | BTC target 78,000, 76,000, strong support at 75,800; ETH loses 2,300 |
4. Market Focus This Week: Anthropic Files for IPO and Ethereum Upgrade Delayed
4.1 Anthropic Files for IPO: Return of the AI Narrative and Related Trading Opportunities
On October 26, Anthropic announced it had filed its listing application with the SEC, planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. The company had secretly filed in June, and this marks the public disclosure. Valuation, offering size, and listing date have not yet been announced.
- Market Reaction: The Nasdaq rose 0.8% that day; on October 27, chip stocks rose for the third consecutive day, with the Nasdaq gaining another 1.2%. Broadcom surged nearly 4%, as banks and Blackstone agreed to provide financing for its supply of AI chips to Anthropic.
- Why It Matters: This week, the AI sector was initially spooked by Meta's capital expenditure but was pulled back by Anthropic. The AI narrative is the common anchor for US equity and crypto risk appetite this quarter.
- How to Read MEXC Data: [Anthropic Pre-IPO Futures Oct 26–27 Volume / Open Interest Changes; Performance of AI Sector Tokens]
- Further Reading: [Latest Updates on Anthropic IPO](【Learn Link】), [How to Participate in Anthropic Pre-IPO](【Learn Link】)
4.2 Ethereum Glamsterdam Delayed: EIP-8037 Vulnerability and ETH Market Outlook
The Hoodi testnet activation originally scheduled for Oct 26 has been canceled, with no new date set. According to CryptoTicker, core developers removed the activation from the Hoodi configuration on Oct 22. The reason was a security issue discovered by the auditing firm ChainSecurity, not a software bug.
- Where is the problem: EIP-8037 modifies the Gas pricing mechanism for new storage. Under the new rules, contracts may reclaim more Gas after a failed external call, leading to incorrect conclusions in their remaining Gas checks. Thirteen affected live contracts have been identified so far.
- Unaffected parts: The Sepolia testnet, activated on Oct 6, and the Ethereum mainnet are operating as usual.
- Impact on ETH: The mainnet launch date was already undetermined, so the short-term impact is limited; however, the expectation of a December launch has largely fallen through, removing a medium-term narrative support for ETH.
5. Next Week's Macro Calendar: PCE Data and Tech Giant Earnings
Time (UTC+8) | Event | Potential Impact | Related Trading Pairs |
Oct 29, 2026, 02:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference at 02:30 | Market expects rates to hold at 3.75%–4.00%; if a December rate hike is hinted, BTC support at $80,000 will face pressure | |
Morning, Oct 29 | Microsoft and Alphabet Earnings | Whether AI capital expenditure continues to expand | |
Oct 29, 2026, 20:30 | US Q3 GDP Preliminary, September PCE, Initial Jobless Claims | PCE is the Fed's most watched inflation indicator | |
Oct 29, 2026, 21:15 | ECB Interest Rate Decision | Direction of the US Dollar Index | |
Morning, Oct 30 | Amazon Earnings | AI cloud business demand | |
Nov 3 | US Midterm Elections | Reports suggest the US may take short-term military action against Iran after the election; oil prices and risk-off sentiment are key |
According to Kitco, federal funds futures indicate a ~90.6% probability of holding rates steady this time, and a ~73% probability of another rate hike before year-end.
6. What are MEXC's benefit events this week?
Last week, MEXC held [300] platform events, covering spot, futures, and new coin trading. Key events include:
Event Time: Oct 20, 2026, 18:00 (UTC+8) – Anthropic Pre-IPO Launchpad officially starts
Event Highlights:
- Get early access to Anthropic Pre-IPO trends: Focus on the hot AI sector and explore new investment opportunities in Anthropic Pre-IPO!
- Complete tasks to win up to 4 lucky draw entries: Chance to win surprise gifts like ANTHROPIC(PRE) and NVIDIA H200 GPUs!
- Hot Assets + Grand Prizes: Join the event to win popular Pre-IPO assets and high-value hardware rewards. Don't miss out on these great prizes!
Event Period: Oct 21, 18:00 – Jan 19, 2027, 18:00 (UTC+8)
Event Highlights:
- Check in daily to earn points easily: Sign in every day to claim XP points. No threshold required, making it easy to accumulate points!
- Complete trading tasks to earn up to 74,550 XP: Participate in trading tasks to earn generous points and unlock more rewards!
- Points Mall, redeem gifts as you wish: Use XP to redeem multiple gifts such as futures trial funds, stock position airdrops, and token rewards, ensuring every point is worth it!
Event Period: Ongoing, Daily 06:00 – Next Day 06:00 (UTC)
Event Highlights:
- Trade daily to win free futures trial funds: Join the daily event, enjoy trading benefits, and win extra rewards!
- Up to 500,000 USDT in zero-fee trading volume per session: Enjoy up to 500,000 USDT in zero-fee trading volume calculated daily for a low-cost trading experience!
- LAUNCH launches Meme+ Zone: Spot trading opens on Oct 26. Spot grid trading requires App version 5.1.0 or higher.
FAQ
Why did Bitcoin drop from October 21 to 27?
Primarily due to geopolitical shocks over the weekend of October 24–25: Reports of U.S. evacuations from the Middle East gained traction while U.S. stock markets were closed, triggering $815 million in liquidations. Previously, ETFs saw a combined outflow of $774 million on October 22–23, which also weakened buying pressure.
Was Bitcoin's fall below $80,000 a panic sell-off?
On-chain data does not support this view. Most profit-taking was completed before the breakdown on October 22; realized losses on October 24 and 25 were only $59 million and $100 million, respectively, far below this year's daily median of approximately $367 million. The support level below is the cost basis for short-term holders, around $75,820.
Did Bitcoin ETFs see inflows or outflows this week?
Overall, there was a slight net outflow, with the pattern being "inflows in the first half of the week, outflows in the second half." According to Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of approximately $138 million from Oct 21–27. Inflows totaled $525 million on Oct 21, outflows amounted to $774 million from Oct 22–23, and inflows resumed at $110 million on Oct 26.
When will the Ethereum Glamsterdam upgrade go live?
There is currently no confirmed date. The Hoodi testnet activation originally scheduled for Oct 26 was canceled due to security issues with EIP-8037, and the mainnet launch date has not been announced.
When will Anthropic have its Initial Listing?
The listing application was publicly filed on October 26, with plans for an Initial Listing on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. The specific listing date, valuation, and offering size have not yet been announced.
Will the Fed raise interest rates in December?
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December following the October 28 decision is approximately 86%. Key variables are the PCE data on October 29 and oil price trends.
Recommended Reading
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto asset prices are highly volatile, and macroeconomic and geopolitical events may significantly impact the market. The trading pairs mentioned in this article are for data presentation only and do not constitute buy or sell recommendations.
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