Exelon Stock Q1 2026: A $41.7 Billion Capital Pivot and a 47% Total Return Case

Key Takeaways for Exelon Stock as of June 2026

• Analysts rate Exelon stock 4 Buys, 1 Outperform, 16 Holds, and 2 Sells, with a street mean target of $49, implying around 5% upside from the current price of $47.
• TIKR’s mid-case model values Exelon at around $69 by December 2030, implying around 47% total return from current levels, or roughly 9% annualized.
• Exelon stock sits below fair value at current levels, with management reaffirming EPS growth near the top of the 5% to 7% range through 2029 while the stock trades at a near-7% discount to the street mean, and the transmission capital pivot to a $41.7 billion plan providing a more durable earnings pathway than the market prices.

Exelon stock is trading around $47, with a 52-week range of $42 to $51. Check the full EPS estimate trajectory for EXC on TIKR for free →

Exelon Beats Q1 Estimates and Pivots Its $41.7 Billion Capital Plan Toward Transmission

Exelon Corporation (EXC), the nation’s largest regulated electric and gas utility, reported Q1 2026 adjusted operating earnings of $0.91 per share following its May 6 earnings call, beating the street estimate of $0.89 per share and topping revenue estimates by over $150 million.

Revenue reached $7.24 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, up 7.86% year over year from $6.71 billion, as higher approved distribution and transmission rates at ComEd, PHI, and BGE drove utility earnings.

The headline beat arrived alongside a material restructuring of the four-year capital plan, with Exelon cutting $1.1 billion in PECO and BGE distribution investment and adding $1.5 billion in transmission capital, keeping the overall plan at $41.7 billion through 2029 while targeting 16% transmission rate base growth.

CEO Calvin Butler explained the logic directly on the Q1 earnings call: “This is a different plan for a different moment. We are pulling back on certain projects, reprioritizing capital across our portfolio and delivering $350 million of incremental O&M savings in 2027.”

PECO’s rate case withdrawal in Pennsylvania drove the distribution pullback, with management citing affordability concerns and stakeholder feedback as the reason, and Interim CEO Mike Innocenzo stepping in as the company signaled it would refile at a more constructive moment.

Exelon reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share, with management targeting midpoint or better, and held its long-term EPS growth outlook near the top end of the 5% to 7% range from 2025 to 2029.

The company submitted competitive bids for two Illinois transmission projects totaling approximately $2 billion in the MISO Tranche 2.1 window jointly with Invenergy, with two additional bids expected later in the quarter.

ComEd, Exelon’s Illinois unit serving more than 4.2 million customers, maintained top-decile reliability even as severe wind storms brought nearly 675,000 outages across northern Illinois in June, with service restored to 99% of affected customers.

Track Exelon stock’s capital plan execution and rate case calendar on TIKR for free →

EXC Stock Holds Its EPS Guide Despite Regulatory Noise: What the Estimates Show

Wall Street projects Exelon stock’s EPS normalized to rise around 23% year over year for the quarter ending June 2026, following Q1’s $0.91 per share result, as rate base expansion earns into the income statement across the utility portfolio.

Consensus estimates for the full year ending December 2026 sit consistent with Exelon’s guidance range of $2.81 to $2.91 per share, with management targeting midpoint or better as the second-half cadence picks up through the seasonal pattern.

For fiscal 2027, estimates project EPS normalized of around $0.93 per share for the March quarter, reflecting around 2% sequential growth as transmission capital accumulates in rate base and the $350 million O&M program takes effect.

Currently, analyst consensus stands at 4 Buy, 1 Outperform, 16 Hold, and 2 Sell across 23 covering analysts.

The street mean target of $49 implies around 5% upside from the current $47 price, a subdued premium reflecting the PECO uncertainty rather than the forward earnings picture, with 16 of 21 rated analysts sitting on Hold despite the beat-and-raise dynamic on the capital plan.

The Street’s open question centers on whether the Maryland Pepco rate case order, expected in August, delivers a constructive enough outcome to confirm that the PECO affordability concession was a Pennsylvania-specific timing event and not the start of a multi-jurisdiction pattern.

EXC Stock EPS Sits Between Dominion and Duke Across the Regulated Utility Peer Group

Exelon stock’s EPS normalized of $0.91 for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 trails Duke Energy (DUK) at $1.80 and American Electric Power (AEP) at $1.57 but tops Dominion (D) at $0.81 for the same period, a spread that reflects each peer’s generation exposure rather than a uniform wires-only discount.

Looking ahead, consensus estimates project Exelon stock’s EPS normalized rising from $0.91 in March 2026 to $0.93 by March 2027, while Duke moves from $1.80 to $2.00 over the same span, suggesting the absolute gap with generation-heavy peers persists even as Exelon’s rate base growth compounds through the period.

Is Exelon Stock Undervalued in 2026? The TIKR Model Points to Around $69

TIKR’s mid-case values Exelon at around $69 by December 2030, implying around 47% total return from the current price of $47, or roughly 9% annualized over 4.5 years.

The $69 target implies around 47% total return from the current $47 price over 4.5 years, combining price appreciation toward that level with Exelon’s $1.68 annual dividend compounding across the holding period.

That path depends on EPS growing near the top of the 5% to 7% range through 2029, which the $41.7 billion capital program and 16% annual transmission rate base growth support as long as the Maryland and Delaware rate cases clear on schedule.

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Should You Invest in Exelon Corporation?

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